Why prepare?

First of all, I'm not scared. However I am concerned by the amount of glib dismissal or overhype I've seen going around. I've also seen pages which seem to say nothing one way or the other like this from the CDC. I'm sharing this document because I've done a lot of work vetting and curating quality sources of information to put this together for my family. I'd like to share that with you.

The medical system

Stats as of 3/1/2020

It's clear that the virus itself can kill people, but these simple stats almost beg more questions than they answer. That's why I recommend that you check out reliable sources which display easy to read charts without bias. The last thing you need is a nervous news reporter telegraphing panic in her body language in moments like these. Check out the Worldometers coronavirus page and dig into the stats that matter to you. They have a lot of information which could get overwhelming. Here's some of the important links:

• Symptoms: Fever, cough, shortness of breath (similar to common cold)
• Age: Dramatic increase of risk above 50
• Breakdown of cases by country
• News: Latest updates condensed into bullet points

The economy

Economic knock-on effects may cause price inflation or worse. Experts have observed that this could be the black swan event that forces a market crash. It now it seems clear that global trade situations are getting tense. We've cut off China. Trump is even considering blocking off the southern border.

Isn't this all overhyped hysteria?

The hysteria criticism is absolutely valid. This could all amount to nothing in the end. I have decided that I have to act on my principles. I want to keep my family safe. In this case we have a certain level of risk to my family with some simple and reasonable measures I can take calmly without adding to any of the hysteria. The only downside? Maybe some food industry CEOs make a little extra profit and we have few more cans of food than we need. Seems acceptable to me. There are always places to donate canned goods!

A final note on hysteria: This is actually one of the reasons I think we will see problems in the next few months. The closing of businesses, schools, borders, and airports will all compound with economic fear. As paranoid hypochondriacs will flood the medical system convinced they have the coronavirus, you'll be comfortable at home knowing that you've prepared adequately.

Food

Every grocery trip, pick up some non-perishable veggies and protein. I'm thinking about plenty of canned veggies, dried fruits, jerky and canned beans or meat. Make sure you're prepared to take care of sore throats and stuffy noses however you see fit. Think about things like canned soup and your favorite broth ingredients. Maybe even stock up on electrolyte mix.

Medicine

Stock up on the basics for pain, inflammation, and fever management (ibuprofen, acetaminophen, aspirin). Make sure you've got plenty of bandages and common disinfectants like hydrogen peroxide and alcohol so you don't have to venture out into the public when minor accidents happen.

Prevention

UPDATE: Read this real doctor's advice instead!

COVID-19 Defense and Treatment by Dr Rhonda Patrick

~~I'm not a doctor, so I'll keep this simple and common sense. We all need a reminder sometimes!~~

• Stay home - Enjoy alone time or quality time with family. Minimize outings.
• Sleep - Make sure you take the time to rest now so you can help your sick neighbors later.
• Wash your hands
• Don't touch your face
• Hydrate
• Take immune boosting supplements - Do your own research! I am not an expert. (But do feel free to reach out to me if you want a sounding board.)
• Really do sleep. I'm saying this for myself because I hate that I need to do it, but it is important.

Resources

Reference

• Book: Where there is no doctor - This book has a wealth of information. Written for remote villages with inadequate healthcare resources, so it's basically a short, easy to read handbook for taking control of your health. I recommend it for any parent!
• Book: Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder - A how-to book for not only surviving, but thriving in chaos.
  • "Wisdom in decision making is vastly more important – not just practically, but philosophically – than knowledge."
  • Do crazy small things of little consequence, and "stay 'rational' in larger decisions."
• Article: Sequioa - Coronavirus: The Black Swan of 2020
• CDC COVID 2019 Page
• WHO COVID 2019 Page
• COVID-19 Defense and Treatment by Dr Rhonda Patrick

Staying updated

Please don't watch TV. It's bad for your health pretty much always.

Watch Worldometers coronavirus page.

Other interesting links

• Cerno weighs in. This is good stuff! 👀
• Johns Hopkins COVID-19 outbreak map
• UVA Biocomplexity Institute

Twitter

In closing, please stay calm, check in on friends and family, and pray that we all get through this safely and laugh about how silly I was for writing this in a few weeks. Focus on what we can learn longterm instead of stressing over things happening now which we ultimately can't control.

1. The US has vulnerabilities. An antifragile approach means implementing systems of preparation.
2. Unprecedented levels of globalization leads to complexity nobody understands. Don't believe experts. Predictions are not reliable. Mitigate risk to a reasonable degree regardless of what the experts say. Pay attention to how the experts rationalize how the unfolding outcome confirms their prediction.
3. Keep honest tabs on your reaction to the outbreak. This is a good opportunity to observe how you react to complex, high stakes scenarios. How's your prayer life? Time in the Word? Your physical health? Take stock.

If you have anything to add, I will add it and give you credit! Please let me know on twitter or kaleb.lape@gmail.com or anywhere. Be sure to put CORVID-19 in your message so I can prioritize it.

Grace and peace,

Kaleb

I plan to continue updating this document as I learn and implement more precautions. This is my preliminary plan as of 3/1/2020.